2009年3月28日星期六

相对强弱指数(RSI)

相对强弱指数是通过比较一段时期内的平均收盘涨数和平均收盘跌数来分析市场买沽盘的意向和实力,从而作出未来市场的走势。
1.计算公式和方法
RSI=[上升平均数÷(上升平均数+下跌平均数)]×100
具体方法:
上升平均数是在某一段日子里升幅数的平均而下跌平均数则是在同一段日子里跌幅数的平均。例如我们要计算九日RSI,首先就要找出前九日内的上升平均数及下跌平均数,举例子如下:

日数收市价 升 跌
第一天 23.70
第二天 27.90 4.20
第三天 26.50 1.40
第四天 29.60 3.10
第五天 31.10 1.50
第六天 29.40 1.70
第七天 25.50 3.90
第八天 28.90 3.40
第九天 20.50 8.40
第十天 23.20 2.80

(1-10天之和) +15.00 +15.40
───────── ──────────
15÷9=1.67 15.40÷9=1.71

第一天RSI=[1.67÷(1.67+1.71)]×100=49.41
第十天上升平均数=4.20+3.10+1.50+3.40+2.80/9=1.67
第十天下降平均数=1.40+1.70+3.90+8.40/9=1.71
第十天RSI=[1.67÷(1.67+1.71)]×100=49.41
如果第十一天收市价为25.30,则
第十一天上升平均数=(1.67×+2.10)÷9=1.72
第十一天下跌平均数=1.71×8÷9=1.52
第十一天RSI=[1.72÷(1.72+1.52)]×100=53.09
据此可计算以后几天的RSI。同样,按此方法可计算其他任何日数的RSI。至一用多少日的RSI才合适。最初RSI指标提出来时是用14天,14天作为参数则成为默定值。但在实际操作中,分析者常觉得14天太长了一点,才有5天和9天之方法。
2.运用原则:
(1)受计算公式的限制,不论价位如何变动,强弱指标的值均在0与100之间。
(2)强弱指标保持高于50表示为强势市场,反之低于50表示为弱势市场。
(3)强弱指标多在70与30之间波动。当六日指标上升到达80时,表示股市已有超买现象,如果一旦继续上升,超过90以上时,则表示已到严重超买的警戒区,股价已形成头部,极可能在短期内反转回转。
(4)当六日强弱指标下降至20时,表示股市有超卖现象,如果一旦继续下降至10以下时则表示已到严重超卖区域,股价极可能有止跌回升的机会。

(5)每种类型股票的超卖超买值是不同的。在牛市时,通常蓝筹股的强弱指数若是80,便属超买,若是30便属超卖,至于二三线股,强弱指数若是85至90,便属超买,若是20至25,便属超卖。但我们不能硬性地以上述数值,拟定蓝筹股或二三线股是否属于超买或超卖,主要是由于某些股票有自己的一套超买/卖水平,即是,股价反覆的股票,通常超买的数值较高(90至95),而视作超卖的数值亦较低(10至15)。至于那些表现较稳定的股票,超买的数值则较低(65至70),超卖的数值较高(35至 40)。因此我们对一只股票采取买/卖行动前,一定要先找出该只股票的超买/超卖水平。至于衡量一只股票的超买/超卖水平,我们可以参考该股票过去12个月之强弱指标记录。

(6)超买及超卖范围的确定还取决于两个因素。第一是市场的特性,起伏不大的稳定的市场一般可以规定70以上超买,30以下为超卖。变化比较剧烈的市场可以规定80以上超买,20以下为超卖。第二是计算RSI时所取的时间参数。例如,对于9日RSI,可以规定80以上为超买,20以下为超卖。对于24日RSI,可以规定70以上为超买,30以下为超卖。应当注意的是,超买或超卖本身并不构成入市的讯号。有时行情变化得过于迅速,RSI会很快地超出正常范围,这时RSI的超买或超卖往往就失去了其作为出入市警告讯号的作用。例如在牛市初期,RSI往往会很快进入80以上的区 域,并在此区域内停留相当长一段时间,但这并不表示上升行情将要结束。恰恰相反,它是一种强势的表现。只有在牛市未期或熊市当中,超买才是比较可靠的入市讯号。基于这个原因,一般不宜在RSI一旦进入非正常区域就采取买卖行动。最好是价格本身也发出转向信号时再进行交易。这样就可以避免类似于上面提到的RSI进入超买区但并不立即回到正常区域那样的“陷井”。在很多情况罡,很好的买卖讯号是:RSI进入超买超卖区,然后又穿过超买或超卖的界线回到正常区域。不过这里仍然要得到价格方面的确认,才能采取实际的行动。这种确认可以是:趋势线的突破;②移动平均线的突破;③某种价格型态的完成。

(7)强弱指标与股价或指数比较时,常会产生先行显示未来行情走势的特性,亦即股价或指数未涨而强弱指标先上升,股价或指数未跌而强弱指标先下降,其特性在股价的高峰与谷底反应最明显。

(8)当强弱指标上升而股价反而下跌,或是强弱指标下降而股价反趋上涨,这种情况称之为“背驰”。当RSI在70至80上时,价位破顶而RSI不能破顶,这就形成了“顶背驰”,而当RSI在30至20下时,价位破底而RSI不能破底就形成了“底背驰”。这种强弱指标与股价变动,产生的背离现象,通常是被认为市场即将发生重大反转的讯号。和超买及超卖一样,背驰本背并不构成实际的卖出讯号,它只是说明市场处于弱势。实际的投资决定应当在价格本身也确认转向之后才作出。虽然在行情确实发生反转的情况下,这个确认过程会使投资者损失一部分利润,可是却可以避免在生情后来并未发生反转的情况下投资者可能作出的错误的卖出决定。相对地说,这种错误会对投资者造成更大的损失,因为有时候竺情会暂时失去动量然后又重新获得动量,而这时价格并不发生大规模的转向。

3.评 价
(1)相对强弱指数能显示市场超卖和超买,预期价格将见顶回软或见底回升等,但RSI只能作为一个警告讯号,并不意味着市势必然朝这个方向发展,尤其在市场剧烈震荡时,超卖还有超卖,超买还有超买,这时须参考其他指标综合分析,不能单独依赖RSI的讯号而作出买卖决定。
(2)背离走势的讯号通常者都是事后历史,而且有背离走势发生之后,行情并无反转的现象。有时背离一,二次才真正反转,因此这方面研判须不断分析历史资料以提高经验。
(3)在牛皮行情时RSI徘徊于40-60之间,虽有时突破阻力线和压力线,但价位无实际变化。

WR(威廉指标)

一.用途:
该指标表示的涵义是当天的收盘价在过去一段日子的全部价格范围内所处的相对位置,是一种兼具超买超卖和强弱分界的指标。它主要的作用在于辅助其他指标确认讯号。

三.使用方法:
1、 从WR的绝对取值方面考虑。
A、当WR 高于80,即处于超卖状态,行情即将见底,应当考虑买进。
B、当WR 低于20,即处于超买状态,行情即将见顶,应当考虑卖出。
2、 从WR的曲线形状考虑。
A、在WR进入高位后,一般要回头,如果这时股价还继续上升,这就产生背离,是卖出的信号。
B、在WR进入低位后,一般要反弹,如果这时股价还继续下降,这就产生背离,是买进的信号。
C、WR连续几次撞顶(底),局部形成双重或多重顶(底),则是卖出(买进)的信号

三.使用心得:
1.W%R主要可以辅助RSI,确认强转弱或弱转强是否可靠?RSI向上穿越50阴阳分界时,回头看一看W%R是否也同样向上空越50?如果同步则可靠,如果不同步则应多参考其他指标讯号再作决定。相反的,向下穿越50时,也是同样的道理。注意!比较两者是否同步时,其设定的参数必须是相对的比例,大致上W%R5日、10日、20日对应RSI6日、12日、24日,但是也可以依照自己的测试结果,自行调整其最佳对应比例。

2.W%R进入超买或超卖区时,应立即寻求MACD讯号的支援。当W%R进入超买区时,可以当成一种预警效果,回头看看MACD是否产生DIF向下交叉MACD的卖出讯号?一律以MACD 的讯号为下手卖出的时机。相反的,W%R进入超卖区时,也适用同样的道理。

四.计算公式
n日WMS=[(Hn—Ct)/(Hn—Ln)] ×100
式中:Cn---当天的收盘价;
Hn和Ln---最近N日内(包括当天)出现的最高价和最低价

Business This Week (Mar 23 - 27)

27 March
- RAM Ratings has reaffirmed its long- and short-term ratings of AA3 and P1 respectively for Gamuda Bhd’s RM900 million worth of Islamic bonds.
- Malaysian Rating Corporation (MARC) announced plans to embark on new initiatives including syariah compliance ratings by the second half of this year.

26 March
- Gamuda Bhd's net profit for 2Q ended Jan 31, 2009 fell 45% from a year earlier to RM49.06m.
- Mutiara Goodyear Development Bhd's net profit fell 60% to RM2.11m in 3Q ended Jan 31, 2009, from RM5.22m a year earlier as revenue fell 78% to RM16.76m from RM75.72m.
- Unicorn International Islamic Bank Malaysia Bhd posted maiden full-year net profit of RM812,546 for the year ended Dec 31, 2008.
- The Securities Commission granted Khazanah Nasional Bhd an exemption to carry out a mandatory take-over offer on the remaining shares of TM International after the latter's proposed RM5.25 billion rights issue.

25 March
- RAM Holdings predicted that the country is likely to see a weak recovery by 2H this year as confidence returns to the equity market and demand begins to stabilise.
- Kencana Petroleum Bhd’s net profit rose 25.7% to RM27.25m in 2Q ended Jan 31, 2009 from RM21.68m a year earlier.
- LCL Corporation Bhd received permission from the Securities Commission to defer its proposed renounceable rights issue.
- Dijaya Corporation Bhd obtained the Securities Commission’s approval for a time extension up to Sept 27 to implement its proposed rights issue.

24 March
- TM International Bhd’s issue of the rights shares had been fixed at RM1.12 per share, which is a discount of 50.9%, as they seek to raise gross proceeds of RM5.25bn.
- Selangor Properties Bhd’s net profit plunged 96% to RM1.75m in 1Q09 from RM43.16m a year earlier.
- Can-One Bhd entered into a share-sale agreement with Kian Joo Holdings to buy a 32.9% stake in Kian Joo Can Factory Bhd (KJCF) for RM241.12m.
- Pos Malaysia Bhd proposed a first and final dividend of 10 sen per share less 25% tax in respect of the year.
- Datuk Fateh Iskandar Mohamed Mansor appointed as Glomac Bhd CEO.
- CIMB Bank Bhd named the sole winner in Asia for “Best Retail Banking Branch Innovation Award” by The Asian Banker.
- Paragon Union Bhd’s managing director (MD) Quah Ban Hoo and three independent directors have resigned from their posts ahead of an EGM to remove them.

23 March
- RHB Research Institute said the productivity decline in the manufacturing sector quickened to 15.1% y-o-y compared with a fall of 12.4% in December.
- CIMB Research maintains underperform call on SP Setia at RM3.02 and a target price of RM2.30.
- Kenanga Investment issued two cash-settled structured warrants last week — Commerz-CF and Genting-CO.
- Penang’s Tatt Giap Group investing RM25m to produce a new line of larger diameter welded stainless steel pipes under its Superinox brand.
- Deloitte KassimChan tendered their resignation as auditors of Talam Corporation Bhd and Kumpulan Europlus Bhd.

2009年3月20日星期五

Business this week (Mar 16-20)

20 March

- The CPI rose 3.7% in February 2009 y-o-y due to sharp increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages.
- Vehicles sales fell 3% in February or by 1,126 units to 36,675 from January as consumers’ confidence was weighed down by uncertainties
- Bank Negara international reserves fell RM1.9 billion to RM314 billion (US$90.6 billion) as at March 13 from RM315.9 billion (USD91.1 billion) on Feb 27.
- MMC Corp received shareholders approval to acquire Senai Airport Terminal Services for RM1.7 billion. Obtained 97% of shareholders’ votes cast.

19 March

- Public Bank obtained BNM’s approval to issue up to RM5 billion non-cumulative perpetual capital securities.
- SP Setia Bhd's net profit fell 35.8% to RM31.18m in 1QFY09.
- Green Packet subsidiary Packet One Networks awarded RM103.7 million contract to ZTE Malaysia for the second phase of the WiMAX network.
- Malaysia’s manufacturing sector recorded sales value of RM36.7 billion, down 22.7% or RM10.8 billion from a year ago.
- Dell Malaysia offered a VSS to all 5,000 employees in Malaysia to reduce global workforce by 10% or 8,800 jobs.

18 March

- Malayan Banking shares rose to the most in 4 ½ weeks at the midday break on, adding 14 sen to RM4.16.
Maxis Communications Bhd announced plans to invest US$10bn (RM37bn) in its Indian unit Aircel.

17 March

- The Crown Princess Hotel KL to be redesigned and rebranded as the Doubletree by Hilton Kuala Lumpur City Centre.
- SapuraCrest Petroleum secured RM3 billion job to instal offshore facilities at deepwater Gumusut-Kakap oil field, operated by Sabah Shell.
- Human Resources Ministry said 26,000 jobs have been lost in the country since September 2008 and foresees the loss of another 40,000 to 50,000 more jobs this year.
- Kramat Tin Dredging Bhd’s share price plunged 53% by 3pm on March 17 ahead of its impending suspension on March 20.

16 March

- Berjaya Sports Toto posted net profit of RM97.11 million for the third quarter ended Jan 31 compared with RM98.16 million a year ago.
- The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) Board declared a dividend rate of 4.50% for 2008.
- The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) forecasts the country’s gross domestic product to contract 3.8% this year.

2009年3月19日星期四

2009年3月16日星期一

2011 launch for Resorts World at Sentosa

RESORTS World at Sentosa Pte Ltd, a unit of Genting International Ltd, says its integrated resort may be fully completed and officially launched in 2011.

The casino, the Universal Studio Singapore theme park, the Festive Walk and four hotels (namely Hotel Michael, Maxim Towers, Hard Rock Hotel and Festive Hotel) are due to be launched in the first quarter next year.

However, the world's biggest oceanarium, Marine Life Park, the Spa Villas and the Equarius Hotel will be launched later.

"It will be launched after the first quarter of 2010, it may be end-2010, it may be 2011. We are working closely with the Singapore government on it. We will be able to have a clearer picture on the launching and opening dates after a few months," said Resorts World at Sentosa vice-president and head of communications Krist Boo during a company visit yesterday.

When completed, the integrated resort will offer six hotels comprising over 1,800 rooms, two major attractions, a casino, a six-star spa and wellness retreat, and a Maritime Xperiential Museum, among others.

Currently, the resort is under construction and is about 60 per cent completed.

It is expected to generate about 45,000 jobs, of which 10,000 people will be staff of Resorts World at Sentosa.
________________________________________________________________________

2009年3月13日星期五

KL Composite Index Up or Down



This week KL Composite Index fall in the lower point at 836.51 on 12/03/2009.This point as low as since 2005. Is it the lowest point for in this year? May be .....
From KL Composite Index chart, we can see that nest week for the bottom support line should be at 821 point and the upper support line at 914 point. If KLCI fall in 821 point then it will continue down to another support line. But,the trading volume too remained thin with only 301 million shares changing hands.

2009年3月9日星期一

附加股-必学!!

这是一次重大的研究和学习机会--从这一刻开始我们来看看接下来预计将发售附加股的公司股价此起彼落

(吉隆坡6日讯) 受建议中附加股发行订价的消息冲击,马来亚银行有限公司(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融组)股价今日继续滑落。

继开市退6仙,以4.76令吉作成首宗交易后,闭市时该股跌幅至全日最低挂4.54令吉,较昨日闭市价降28仙,成交量有746万8500股。

马来亚银行昨日宣布,把附加股发售价订在每股2.74令吉。

该银行说,订价是考虑了其股票周四闭市价4.82令吉而定。

它相等于推理的除权价每股4.17令吉的34.4%折价,以及周四闭市价的折价43.2%。

据马来亚银行说,它已接获国民投资有限公司以及独资子公司国民股票信托有限公司管理的某些单位信托基金承诺,认购建议中附加股各别总共约55.7%的配售额。

而雇员公积金局也承诺,认购建议中附加股获分配的约13.7%。

它指出,上述附加股发售旨在增强该银行的股本根基,并预定在下个月完成。

侨丰研究预测,该银行09和10财政年度的股本回酬,分别将会冲淡至1.8个百分点和2.7个百分点,至9.3%和9.7%。而每股收益则将缩小到29%。

它说:“尽管目标价下调,我们仍然维持该股的中和评级,因价格下滑可能吸引目前偏低的外资持股,而且加强资本基础,在长期来说是属于正面。”

马银投资银行认为,上述比预期更大型的附加股发行,将进一步支撑投资者对该股的信心。

不过,该投资银行相信,其股价将继续面对下调风险,因其小股东们可能继续选择出售股票,以避免参与上述筹资活动。

Supermax to focus on organic growth




Not too long later, SUPERMX once again traded near the support line at RM 0.79 and started to move up. With the recent news, how would SUPERMX react? Can it rebound by 30% again?

2009年3月8日星期日

哈哈!我人生第一次写BLOG。。。
希望在此分享我对大马股票的看法。。。

你对F&N股有什么看法

你对此股有什么看法?