2009年4月25日星期六

IOI boss still bullish on CPO price

IOI Corp Bhd (1961) is optimistic of crude palm oil prices (CPO) averaging between RM2,600 and RM2,800 per tonne for the rest of the year because of robust global demand.

"Palm oil, being a very affordable vegetable oil, continues to see strong global demand. Compounded with less harvest of palm fruits, stock levels have fallen for four consecutive months," executive chairman Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng said.

Latest government updates show that palm oil inventories have fallen from an all-time high of 2.27 million tonnes in November last year to 1.36 million tonnes as at end-March.

Last year, IOI Corp's 80 oil palm estates in Malaysia and Indonesia, on which 150,000ha are planted, produced close to four million tonnes of fresh fruit bunches. This translates into a yield of 29 tonnes per hectare per year.
With IOI Corp being one of the most efficient producers in the world, Lee's views on palm oil prices are closely followed by traders and industry analysts.

"Six months ago, I foresaw prices would likely surpass RM2,000 per tonne. Many planters had cut back on fertiliser and now you see the trees producing fewer fruits," he told Business Times in a telephone interview.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data show that CPO output in the first three months of this year fell 4 per cent to 3.79 million tonnes from 3.95 million tonnes a year ago.

Last Friday, third month benchmark palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives market added RM30 to close at RM2,299 per tonne.

Asked if planters like IOI Corp were comfortable with current prices, Lee replied: "I'm happy. Actually, I'm still bullish on prices, but it is not good for prices to jump too high, like last year.

"It would be good if prices trade in a stable range at between RM2,600 and RM2,800 per tonne for the rest of the year. I think this level is fair for both planters and consumers."

Last year, prices leapt to an all-time high of RM4,486 in March but plunged to a low of RM1,390 in October, resulting in an average price of RM2,773 per tonne. This translated into RM65.19 billion of exports.

When compared to the average price of RM2,517 per tonne in 2007, Malaysia earned RM45.17 billion in palm oil shipments.

2009年4月24日星期五

Business this week (20-24 April)

24 April
- Telekom Malaysia Bhd received RM2.09 billion from Axiata Group Bhd, which was the full payment of RM2.05b including interest of RM68 million under the demerger agreement.
- Nagamas International Bhd announced plans to sell its entire interests in 14 subsidiaries in its industrial division to Jojevi Sdn Bhd for RM4 million.
- Bursa Malaysia’a trading volume rose to 2.08 billion units, highest since October 2007.
- BMW Malaysia Sdn Bhd unveiled the new MINI Cabriolet, replacing the best-selling old soft top that sold 164,000 cars worldwide before production ceased in August 2008.
- ISS Consulting Solutions Bhd chief executive officer and managing director Harald Weinbrecht disposed of 10 million ISS shares.

23 April
- British American Tobacco (M) Bhd posted a net profit of RM205.94 muillion for 1Q ended March 31, 2009.
- YTL e-Solutions to invest RM2.5 billion over five years for its WiMax services as it targets to cover 70% of the population.
- Pahang was allocated RM808.4 million under the RM60bn second stimulus package.
- Bank Islam filed suit against Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim for alleged default of US$18.5m (RM66.6m) in Islamic loan facilities made to him in 1998 over purchase of shares in Kumpulan Guthrie Bhd.
-Transmile Group Bhd registered a net loss of RM43.8m in 1Q09.

22 April
- Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced the government had scrapped the 30% bumiputra equity ruling for 27 sectors.
- Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd sold its non-core assets National Exhibition and Convention Centre Sdn Bhd (NECC) and Sepang International Circuit Sdn Bhd (SIC) to the government.
- March consumer price index rose 3.5% on year, pushed up by costlier food prices despite cheaper fuel globally.
- ETI Tech Corporation Bhd posted a net profit of RM4.77m in 2Q ended Feb 28, 2009.

21 April
- Opcom Holdings Bhd bagged a RM359m two-year contract for the supply of passive fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) system to Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM).
- Columbia Asia Sdn Bhdi announced plans to invest a total of RM365 million to build another six new hospitals across the country.
- Bank Rakyat recorded a pre-tax profit and zakat of RM331m for the first three months of 2009, an increase of RM80.6 million or 32.2% y-o-y.
- PLUS Expressways Bhd appointed Datuk Seri Ismail Shahudin as a non-independent non-executive director.
- Tenaga Nasional Bhd repurchased and cancelled US$39.08 million nominal value of the US$150 million 7.5% debentures due 2096 issued in January 1996.
- Syarikat Bekalan Air Selangor Sdn Bhd (Syabas) announced the freezing of a RM2.6bn project to replace old mains and communication pipes in Selangor, KL and Putrajaya.
- The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) announced that vehicles sold in March were 44,205 units, up 20.5% or 7,530 units higher than February.

20 April
- Axis Real Estate Investment Trust (Axis REIT) recorded a 15.39% growth in net profit to RM10.42m in 1Q ended March 31, 2009.
- NCB Holdings Bhd, which operates Northport in Port Klang, reported a 10.81% plunge in net profit to RM29.87m in 1Q ended March 31, 2009.
- Affin Holdings Bhd CEO Kamarul Arifin Mohd Jamil announced plans to inject RM60 million into its Islamic banking unit by this year-end.
- The Securities Commission had in 1Q ended March 31 had approved six equity-capital raising proposals estimated at RM13.435 billion, up from RM138.8 million in 4Q last year.
- CIMB-Principal Asset Management Sdn Bhd launched its CIMB-Principal China Recovery Structured Fund, targeting RM150m investments from customers.

2009年4月23日星期四

Maybank, Axiata share price may face pressure

KUALA LUMPUR: Now that Malaysia’s two largest cash calls to raise some RM11.45 billion is near their respective closing, it is now time to watch if the share prices of Malayan Banking Bhd and Axiata Group Bhd would succumb to selling pressure when the new rights shares list over the next two weeks.

Up to 2.2 billion new Maybank shares are scheduled to list by April 30, while Axiata (formerly TM International Bhd) will see up to 4.59 billion new shares listed by May 11.

However, “some medium-term weakness” could emerge when the new rights shares are listed, OSK Research said in a report in late March. This was concluded based on its analysis of share price trends of companies like HSBC plc and DBS Holdings Ltd that recently completed cash calls.

OSK had qualified that the analysis ignored fundamental developments. So far, it had been right about share prices trending higher post ex-rights and prices holding up during the rights entitlement trading period.

The final number of rights shares to be listed is scheduled for released by Monday for Maybank and by May 5 for Axiata, when the companies announce the final subscription results for their respective rights exercise.

Maybank’s share base will be enlarged by 45% to 7.08 billion shares from its nine-for-20 issue while Axiata’s five-for-four issuance is expected to balloon its share base by 125% to 8.45 billion shares.

An analyst with a local brokerage firm said he “still expects some selling pressure when the rights shares list”, although acknowledging that Axiata’s share price had run ahead of his expectations.

At yesterday’s closing prices, investors who picked up both Axiata’s and Maybank’s renounced rights entitlement and subscribed to the rights shares are sitting on theoretical paper gains.

Axiata shares closed at RM1.98 yesterday, up 18.9 sen or 10.6% from its ex-rights price of RM1.791 on April 7.

Axiata’s renounced rights entitlement (unpaid rights to the rights shares) that ceased trading yesterday, had traded between 57 sen and 73 sen apiece before closing at 69.5 sen.

This puts investment cost, for those who picked up the renounced rights and paid RM1.12 apiece to subscribe to the rights, at between RM1.69 and RM1.85 apiece. This is between 6.6% and 14.6% below Axiata’s RM1.98 close yesterday.

Axiata rose to as high as RM2.06 intra-day trade yesterday, before closing at its intra-day low of RM1.98, its fifth straight day of gains. The stock has over the past month gained 50.9 sen or 34.6% from its recent low of RM1.471 on March 18.

Similarly, Maybank’s renounced rights entitlement traded between 98 sen and RM1.09 before they closed and delisted at RM1.06.

Investors who picked up these renounced rights entitlement from the open market and subscribed to the rights at RM2.74 apiece, puts their investment cost for the rights shares that are about to be listed at between RM3.72 and RM3.83 apiece.

This is between 11.3% and 13.9% below the RM4.32 close of Maybank shares yesterday. Maybank’s RM4.32 close yesterday is also 65.6 sen or 17.9% above its ex-rights price of RM3.664 on March 30.

Maybank is raising RM6.2 billion to boost its balance sheet while Axiata is looking to pare debt using the RM5.25 billion proceeds from the rights issue.

2009年4月22日星期三

30% Bumi quota for 27 sub-sectors scrapped

SERVICES SUB-SECTORS FOR LIBERALISATION

Computer and related services

1. Consultancy services related to installation of computer hardware
2. Software implementation services – systems and software consulting services; systems analysis services; systems design services; programming services and systems maintenance services
3. Data processing services – input preparation servies; data processing and tabulation services; time sharing servies and other data processing services
4. Database services
5. Maintenance and repair services of computers
6. Other services – data preparation services; training services; data recovery services; and development of creative content

Health and social services

1. All veterinary services
2. Welfare services delivered through residential institutions to old person and the handicapped
3. Welfare services delivered through residential institutions to children
4. Child day-care services including day-care services for the handicapped
5. Vocational rehabilitation services for the handicapped

Tourism services

1. Theme park
2. Convention and exhibition centre
3. Travel agencies and tour operators services (for inbound travel only)
4. Hotel and restaurant services (for 4 and 5 star hotels only)
5. Food serving services (for 4 and 5 star hotels only)
6. Beverage serving services for consumption on the services (for 4 and 5 star hotels only)

Transport services

1. Class C freight transportation (Private carrier license – to transport own goods)

Sporting and other recreational services

1. Sporting services (promotion and organization services)

Business services

1. Regional distribution centre
2. International procurement centre
3. Technical testing and analysis services – composition and purity testing and analysis services, testing and analysis services of physical properties, testing and analysis services of integrated mechanical and electrical systems and technical inspection services
4. Management consulting services – general, financial (excluding business tax), marketing, human resources production and public relations services

Rental/Leasing services without operators

1. Rental/leasing services of ships that excludes cabotage and offshore trades
2. Rental of cargo vessels without crew (Bareboat Charter) for international shipping

Supporting and Auxiliary Transport Services

1. Maritime agency services
2. Vessel salvage and refloating services

2009年4月17日星期五

Business This Week (Apr 13-17)

17 April
- Bursa Malaysia Bhd posted net profit of RM15.5m for 1Q ended March 31, down 63% from RM42.1 million a year ago.
- Bank Negara has revoked the money-changing licences of 19 money changers with immediate effect.
- Shares of SRII Bhd closed 18.5 sen or 24.34% higher at 94.5 sen after its major shareholder offered to take it private at RM1 a share.

16 April
- Sales value of the manufacturing sector in February fell 26.1% or RM11.6bn year-on-year to RM32.9bn.
- Nestle (M) Bhd’s net profit for 1Q ended March 31 rose 6.4% to RM100.35m from RM94.34m a year earlier.
- Cahya Mata Sarawak Bhd’s (CMS) unit CMS Land Sdn Bhd secured RM232m worth of construction contracts from Sarawak Energy Bhd to build the latter’s Kuching headquarters.
- Bank Negara governor, Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz announced that the ringgit would not be internationalized. Instead, the focus would be to sustain and support domestic demand.

15 April
- Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak launches Proton’s multi-purpose vehicle – Exora – with a price tag ofRM69,998 and RM75,998.
- Deputy Human Resources Minister Datuk Maznah Mazlan said since October last year, 31,161 workers, including 7,952 foreign workers, had lost their jobs.
- Tenaga Nasional Bhd returned to the black in its second quarter ended Feb 28, 2009 with net profit of RM654.5 million after two straight quarters of net losses.
- Malaysian Institute of Economic Research forecast Malaysia’s export-dependent economy would shrink 2.2% this year, more than the official forecasted 1.3%.

14 April
- Public Bank Bhd’s net profit for 1Q ended March 31, 2009 was RM589.28m compared with RM717.38m a year ago which had then included goodwill payment of RM200m.
- KFC Holdings (M) Bhd’s (KFCH) plans to invest RM32m to open another 40 new KFC restaurants in the country.

13 April
- Johor Corp and its subsidiary Damansara Assets Sdn Bhd is taking Johor Land Bhd private for RM1.55 per share.

2009年4月11日星期六

Business this week (April 6-10)

April 10
— Blue chips extended their rally, as sentiment was boosted by the new Cabinet line-up and strong overnight close on Wall Street. The KLCI closed 23.49 points up at 941.38, the highest since October last year.

— Malaysian Airlines Cargo Sdn Bhd (MasKargo) is waiving its air-to-air and land-to-air cargo transhipment terminal charges for six months effective immediately.

April 9
— The Industrial Production Index (IPI) in February fell 14.7% compared with February 2008, following a sharp contraction in the electrical and electronics products.

— OSK Holdings Bhd’s unit OSK Capital Sdn Bhd said as of March 31, it had give out loans totalling RM176.94 million.

— AmAssurance CEO Ng Lian Lu is looking at a 10% growth in insurance premiums written for its financial year ending March 31, 2010 (FY10) despite the current economic downturn.

— The Securities Commission rejected an appeal from PanGlobal to apply for an extension to implement a restructuring scheme.

April 8
— Agni Energie (AGNI), renewable and alternative clean energy technology provider, received the regional Technology Leadership Award for Renewable and Alternative Power Generation from Frost & Sullivan.

— Al Rajhi Bank became the first Islamic foreign bank in the country to join the MEPS shared ATM network after signing MOU with Malaysian Electronic Payment System (1997) Sdn Bhd.

— Petroliam Nasional, South Africa’s Sasol Ltd and Uzbekistan's national oil and gas company Uzbekneftegaz signed an agreement for the Uzbek gas-to-liquids project.

April 7
— Standard Chartered Bank became the first financial institution to seal a portfolio guarantee deal with Credit Guarantee Corporation Bhd (CGC) to extend RM300 million to SMEs.

— Top Glove Corporation Bhd's net profit for its second quarter rose 22% to RM36 million from RM29.5 million a year ago.

— The Finance Ministry announced the issuance of Sukuk Simpanan Rakyat 01/2009 by Bank Negara Malaysia amounting to RM2.5 billion on May 14, 2009.

— Protasco Bhd unit HCM Engineering Sdn Bhd secured a RM10.3 million project from the Public Works Department to shore up the landslide area in Bukit Antarabangsa.

April 6
— M3nergy Bhd's 58% owned Maveric Ltd, listed in Singapore, had its request for an extension to resolve its aborted deal to acquire several oil and gas-related companies rejected.

— BIMB Holdings, the parent of Bank Islam Malaysia, proposed a restricted issue of new shares to its substantial shareholder Lembaga Tabung Haji (LTH) to raise RM175.4 million, as part of the bank's capital-raising exercise.

— Thailand's Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij announced plans to set up a joint Southeast Asian fund with Malaysia to pool excess foreign exchange reserves to finance infrastructure spending.

2009年4月4日星期六

ROC(变动率指标)

一.用途:
该指标用来测量价位动量,可以同时监视常态性和极端性两种行情。ROC以0为中轴线,可以上升至正无限大,也可以下跌至负无限小。以0轴到第一条超买或超卖线的距离,往上和往下拉一倍、两倍的距离,再画出第二条、第三条超买超卖线,则图形上就会出现上下各三条的天地线。

二.使用方法:
1、 ROC波动于“常态范围”内,而上升至第一条超买线时,应卖出股票。
2、 ROC波动于“常态范围”内,而下降至第一条超卖线时,应买进股票。
3、 ROC向上突破第一条超买线后,指标继续朝第二条超买线涨升的可能性很大,指标碰触第二条超买线时,涨势多半将结束。
4、 ROC向下跌破第一条超卖线后,指标继续朝第二条超卖线下跌的可能性很大,指标碰触第二条超卖线时,跌热多半将停止。
5、 ROC向上穿越第三条超买线时,属于疯狂性多头行情,涨涨涨!涨不停,回档之后还要涨,应尽量不轻易卖出持股。
6、 ROC向上穿越第三条超卖线时,属于崩溃性空头行情,跌跌跌!跌不休,反弹之后还要跌,应克制不轻易买进股票。

三.使用心得:
1.界定某一只股票的超买超卖值时,可以在画面上显示至少一年的走势,观察一年来ROC在常态行情中,大约上升至什么地方就下跌?下跌至什么地方就上涨?这个距离就是第一条超买超卖线的位置,再以此等距离向上和向下 ,画第二条、第三条超买超卖线。
2.判断是否处于“常态行情”?可以参考BR、CR、VR等指标,如果上述指标没有异常上扬,大致上都属于“常态行情”。
3.指标有时候会超出超买超卖线一点点,这是正常的。这一方面,不仅须靠个人的判断能力,参考布林线的说明,可以提高过滤误差的能力。
4.当ROC指标穿越第三条超买超卖线时,将股票交给SAR管理,成果相当令人满意!

四.计算公式:
1、 AX=今天的收盘价—12天前的收盘价
2、 BX=12天前的收盘价
3、 ROC=AX/BX

BOLL(布林线)

一.用途:
该指标利用波带显示其安全的高低价位。股价游走在“上限”和“下限”的带状区间内,当股价涨跌幅度加大时,带状区会变宽,涨跌幅度缩小时,带状区会变窄。

二.使用方法:
1.向上穿越“上限”时,将形成短期回档,为短线的卖出时机。
2.股价向下穿越“下限”时,将形成短期反弹,为短线的买进时机。
3.当布林线的带状区呈水平方向移动时,可以视为处于“常态范围”,此时,采用1、2两个使用方法,可靠度相当高。如果,带状区朝右上方或右下方移动时,则属于脱离常态,另外有特别的意义存在。
4.波带变窄时,激烈的价格波动有可能随时产生,

三.使用心得:
股价经历过一段激烈的波动之后,会逐渐的趋于平静,多空两方面的股民重新思考、整理、角力,在双方都处于犹豫不决的情绪时,股价的波动越来越沉闷,促使布林线的“上限”和“下限”越来越靠近,越来越狭窄,这种情形是“暴风雨前的宁静”,小心!股价就要刮大风、起大浪。

四.计算公式:
1.计算MA
MA = 最近N日累计收盘价 / N日
2.计算MD
MD =平方根 (最近N日累计(收盘价 - MA) * (收盘价 - MA)/N)
3.计算MB、UP、DN
MB = I - 1日MA
UP = MB + 2 * MD
DN = MB - 2 * MD